Abbas Ahmed Writes: The Political Math Behind Fintiri’s Inevitable APC Move

 Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri is preparing to defect to the All Progressives Congress (APC). While official confirmation remains pending, the political calculations surrounding the move are already unfolding in real time.

From my reading of the political terrain, the assumption among many of the governor’s loyalists is that a defection will automatically translate into expanded opportunities. That assumption is misleading. Once inside the APC, old guarantees disappear, and political relevance must be renegotiated from scratch.

The APC is not an empty structure waiting to be occupied. It is a party with entrenched interests, experienced stakeholders, and established power dynamics. Any new entrant regardless of past influence will be required to share space, structures, and opportunities. In politics, sentiment does not replace strategy.

The impact of this anticipated realignment will not be one-sided. Within the APC itself, some aspirants who currently project confidence may quietly lose relevance as positions and tickets are distributed through negotiated sharing formulas rather than early visibility or aggressive campaigning.

This is why aspirants across both APC and PDP should exercise restraint. The resources being poured into early tours, consultations, and premature campaigns offer little political value at this stage. Until internal negotiations are concluded, such efforts amount to motion without momentum.

It is also unrealistic to assume that Governor Fintiri will cross over alone. A carefully selected group of allies will move with him individuals whose political futures will be negotiated and protected. Many others, despite loyalty or proximity to power, will not be part of that arrangement and will be forced to confront a new political reality unaided.

The collateral impact will be significant. Those who misread their political weight or overestimate their relevance within evolving party structures will be the most affected.

As 2027 approaches, Adamawa politics is entering a phase where calculation matters more than excitement. Political survival will depend not on assumptions, but on timing, structure, and strategic relevance.

Abbas Ahmed